Holiday maths: When is the best time to book a holiday?

Should you book your holiday months in advance, wait for the January sales or hold out for a last-minute bargain? The short answer is there isn’t one perfect time to book.  

Holiday prices change constantly based on things like demand, availability, flights and hotel pricing. The best time to book a holiday depends on where you’re going, when you want to travel and how flexible you can be.  

If you’re tied to school holidays or have a specific hotel in mind, booking early usually makes sense. If you can travel almost anywhere, on almost any date, you have more freedom to wait and compare. 

As a rough guide:  

Summer school holidays: Start looking nine to 18 months ahead  

Family package holiday: Book as early as possible  

Popular summer destination: Around six to 12+ months ahead  

Winter sun: Between four and nine months ahead  

Christmas and New Year: Book early, at least nine months to a year ahead  

Long-haul holiday: Start browsing six to 12 months ahead  

Flexible couples break: Start comparing a few months out  

Completely flexible getaway: Last-minute can sometimes work  

These are guidelines rather than rules. There’s no guarantee that booking exactly six months or a year ahead will deliver the lowest possible price. Think of them more as sensible times to start comparing. 

If you know exactly what you want, booking early is often the best option. Getting ahead of the game usually gives you the widest choice of:  

• Hotels  

• Room types  

• Flight times  

• Departure airports  

• Board options  

• Family rooms 

That can be particularly important if you’re travelling during busy periods like school holidays. And the more specific your requirements are, the earlier it makes sense to book.  

For example, if you’re dreaming of a specific hotel in Tenerife, flying from Birmingham during the first week of the school summer holidays, waiting until the last minute is a much bigger gamble than if you just want ‘somewhere sunny in June’.  

Booking early also gives you longer to spread the cost of your holiday, which can make it more affordable overall. 

For a peak summer holiday, particularly in July or August, we recommend looking early. Families are competing for a relatively small number of school holiday dates, and the most popular hotels and convenient flights can fill up.   

Aim to book well ahead, particularly if:  

• You have fixed dates  

• You need a family room  

• You want a particular hotel  

• You want good flight times  

Waiting for prices to fall might pay off, but you also risk losing the holiday you actually want. 

You’ve got much more flexibility. May, June and September can be great months for package holidays, and being able to move your trip by a few days can sometimes save more than trying to perfectly time when you make the booking.  

In fact, one of the most important things to remember is that when you travel usually matters more than when you book. 

January and February are traditionally big holiday-booking months, and they can be a good time to start looking.  

You might see early-booking promotions, and you’ll still have a wide choice of hotels, rooms and flights for the year ahead. That doesn’t mean every holiday is automatically cheaper in January.  

Prices could always fall later. They could also rise as availability reduces and demand increases. Instead of assuming January is guaranteed to be cheapest, compare the overall package and ask yourself whether it represents good value.  

If you’ve found the right hotel, good flights and a price you’re happy with, waiting indefinitely for it to become even cheaper can be a gamble. 

Sometimes, but it’s far from guaranteed. Last-minute bargains do still exist – if a tour operator has unsold flights or hotel rooms close to departure, prices can sometimes fall. But waiting until the last minute also means you’ll have much less choice.  

It works best for travellers who are genuinely flexible. If you can fly from multiple airports and you’re not too fussy about the destination, you’ll have better luck than someone who needs specific dates, destinations or departure airports.  

Prices can also rise as departure gets closer if availability is low or demand is strong. So while checking last-minute holidays can pay off, we wouldn’t rely on it if the trip really matters to you. 

For popular winter sun destinations such as the Canary Islands, Egypt and Cape Verde, start comparing several months ahead. You’ll generally have more choice of hotels and flights, particularly if you want a specific resort.  

If you’re travelling in an ordinary week in January, February or early December, flexibility can help you find better value. 

Booking earlier is important here. Lots of people want to escape the British winter during the same small festive window, so demand for warm destinations can be high. Travelling on Christmas Day itself can occasionally be cheaper because some travellers prefer to arrive beforehand, but it’s not guaranteed.  

Compare several departure dates around Christmas rather than assuming one particular day will always be the cheapest. 

For long-haul holidays, we’d usually start looking around six months to a year ahead.  

Booking earlier is particularly important if:  

• You want direct flights  

• You’re travelling over Christmas  

• Your dates are fixed  

• You want a particular resort or hotel  

• You need a specific room type  

Long-haul deals can appear later too, but flexibility becomes increasingly important.  

If you’d happily choose between Mexico, Thailand and the Dominican Republic, you can afford to shop around more than someone who has already decided on one particular hotel. 

It can be. You’ll often find genuine promotions during Black Friday, and there can be good savings available.  

However, not every deal is automatically the cheapest you’ll ever see. A sensible approach is to start looking before Black Friday, so you have an idea of what your preferred holiday normally costs. Then compare the final package price, rather than being distracted by a large sale banner.  

And remember that travelling outside peak periods can often save considerably more than any single sale promotion. 

You might have seen claims floating around on social media that the day you book or travel can be the secret to securing the best deal. And there is a little bit of truth in it. Midweek departures can sometimes be cheaper because lots of travellers prefer to fly at weekends to make the most of their annual leave.  

But there’s no guarantees. Prices also depend on the destination, season, school holidays, availability and demand.  

The smartest approach is simply to compare several departure dates. Moving your holiday forward or backwards by one or two days can sometimes make a surprisingly big difference. 

Surprisingly, seven nights is not always the cheapest. A week-long holiday is the standard, so often comes at a premium. Plus, package holiday pricing isn’t as simple as doubling the cost if you double the number of nights.  

Your flights are already included whether you stay for seven nights or 14, while hotel contracts, availability and demand can all affect the final price.  

That means upgrading from seven nights to 10, 11 or even 14 nights can sometimes offer more value per day than you might expect.  

When you search, compare a few different durations rather than automatically selecting seven nights. You might find that staying several extra days costs surprisingly little. 

It depends on how you holiday. All Inclusive packages look more expensive upfront, but they usually include: 

• Meals 

• Drinks 

• Snacks 

• Entertainment 

• Some activities 

If you’re planning to spend most of your week inside a resort, that can work out cheaper overall. 

If you’re travelling somewhere with lots of affordable restaurants and intend to eat out every night, paying extra for All Inclusive might make less sense. 

Rather than trying to find a secret booking day or perfect booking window, focus on the things you can control:  

• Be flexible with your dates. Moving by a few days can make a big difference.  

• Compare departure airports. Prices can vary considerably.  

• Search different holiday durations. 10 nights could offer better value than seven.  

• Compare nearby resorts. The most famous resort isn’t always the cheapest.  

• Travel outside school holidays if you can. This can unlock some of the biggest savings.  

• Choose the right board basis. Consider what you’ll actually spend once you arrive.  

• Compare the whole package. Check luggage, transfers and other extras.  

• Book when you find good value. Don’t become obsessed with trying to predict the absolute lowest possible price. 

Unfortunately, there isn’t one magic answer. If you have fixed dates, children or a particular hotel in mind, book earlier.  

If you’re travelling outside peak periods and can move your dates around, you have more freedom to compare and wait. And if you genuinely don’t care where or when you go, last-minute deals are worth checking.  

Above all, flexibility is usually more useful than trying to outsmart holiday pricing.  

Compare your dates, airports, destinations and holiday lengths, then book when you find the right holiday at a price you’re comfortable paying. 

 Heard it’s cheaper to book in incognito mode? At midnight on a Wednesday? Or while hanging upside down and eating a banana? Follow our holiday myth-busting series on Instagram as we get down to the truth of the matter.  

And for more holiday maths and travel inspiration, check out the Sundeals blog. 

Author: Amabel Buck